Dave Lutz, head of Exchange Traded Funds at JonesTrading, has a quick overview of what traders are talking about on Friday:
- US stock futures are little changed ahead of the jobs report. Economists forecast that the economy added 175,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.7% from 4.6%. German bunds and US Treasurys are holding Thursday’s gains.
- Bitcoin is getting smoked again, down 10%, after it suffered the worst drop in two years on Thursday.
Good Morning, and TGIF! Today is Jobs Day (Street around 175k, but expectations for a miss), so US markets are gyrating around unchanged. Eyes remain on the retail sector after yesterday’s haemorrhaging caused by M and KSS — we will see what GPS and GIII bring into ICR next week. Also the Biotech/HC sector remains in the forefront ahead of JPM next week – AMGN (#1 weight IBB) is marked up 5% on headers. Mostly weaker in Europe in very light Holiday trade (Epiphany = Several Western European markets closed). DAX is off small, but volumes are 30% light to trends. Fins, Energy and Materials weaker, while Consumer tries to rebound. Asia was pretty mixed – Fast Retailing and Takata Weighed in Japan, Samsung up 2% helped Korea close green, Sensex was rejected from 27k, China off small, while Aussie hits new peaks as Telecom jumped.
Bunds and Treasuries are consolidating around yesterday’s highs into NFP — while that DXY is bouncing from 1M lows. Eyes remain in China, where the Yuan was guided stronger at fastest pace in 10years. Overnight CNH Hibor ripped higher again ahead of reserves data tonight, While Bitcoin is getting smoked for another 10%, bringing 2 day losses to 20%. Euro weaker despite better retail sales #s, while Aussie Trade Numbers have the A$ on yesterday’s peaks. Industrial commods are taking a breather, while Gold is retreating 40bp as the $ picks up. Crude is up 1% as Saudi cuts output, While Natty Gas is down another 1% – bringing the week’s losses past 15%
The day’s “Main Event” hits at 8:30, when the Change in Nonfarm Payrolls and US Trade Balance is released. At 10am, we get Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders — then we get our 1st of 3 FOMC speakers as Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy at 12:15, followed by Fed’s Lacker speaking at 1pm — right when the Baker Hughes Rig Count hits. At 3:30 Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in Chicago — right when the “Commitment of Traders” data posts (May be delayed till Monday). Down in Washington, At 1 p.m. we have a Joint session of Congress to count electoral ballots for president and vice president. All eyes will be on Foreign Reserves from China this weekend.
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