Dave Lutz, the head of Exchange Traded Funds at JonesTrading, has a brief overview of what’s happening in markets on Wednesday:
- Stock futures are little changed ahead of a big day for the economy. Retail sales numbers will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. They will capture Thanksgiving and Black Friday, providing the first snapshot into the consumer spending in this holiday shopping season.
- And at 2 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision, which is expected to be a hike. Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference afterwards.
Good Morning! US Futures are slightly higher ahead of a pile of headlines today (FOMC, Retail Sales, Tech Summit). While the S&P climbs small, VIX Futures up 1% as dealers continue to roll to higher strikes and the street scrambles for “upside protection”. Over in Europe, Euro Stoxx retreating from January peaks as the DAX drops 20bp — Discretionary and Fins leading to downside. Italian Banks down 1% on Moody’s, but relatively holding Yesterday gains in light trade. Asia broadly closed around 1month highs, with Aussie climbing 70bp – Shanghai continued its downward trajectory, closing 50bp lower, and Nikkei closed little changed despite better Tankan.
Ahead of the Fed (2pm header and “dots”, 2:30 Presser) — US Treasuries are seeing dip buyers, but repeatedly holding 2.43% in the overnight. Eyes were on Tokyo, where the Bank of Japan moved sharply to stem a recent climb in yields, knocking the 10YY JGB back down under 6bp. The DXY is weaker, with Euro, Yen and Commodity Currencies making gains, while “Cable” is under pressure on weaker UK employment. Metals are shrugging off lower Ore prices in China, with Silver adding 1% and Gold battling w/ $1164. Sea of red in Energy, WTI weaker on chatter Iraq Non-Compliance (already), and heavy Inventory builds reported by API weigh hard on Gasoline. Zero bid remains for Natty Gas, as end-of-year weather forecasts show a warming trend.
Ahead of us today, Advance Retail Sales for November and PPI hit at 8:30 — US Business Inventories hit at 10, and DOE posts data at 10:30 (API showed a build 4.7mln, Street expecting 1.5mln DRAW. Cushing stocks climbed 630k, far less than the 3.2mln jump expected by analysts. Gasoline Stocks leapt 3.9mln barrels higher, the biggest increase since January) — At 2pm we get the FOMC Rate Decision; Fed Summary of Economic Projections (Dot Plot), and the Yellen Presser is at 2:30.