Dave Lutz, the head of Exchange Traded Funds at JonesTrading, has your guide to what’s happening in markets today:
- Futures are up after another record-setting day for the Dow. European stocks are also
- The Fed’s two-day meeting begins in Washington. Fed fund futures, which show traders’ bets for where the benchmark Fed funds rate will be, reflect a 100% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise it on Wednesday. The 10-year yield is slightly down from a 17-month high, but still held near 2.45% overnight.
Good Morning! US Futures are adding 30bp early, recouping all of yesterday’s losses as we await the FOMC “Drift” into tomorrow’s meeting. Some themes continuing from yesterday — Big Tech lagging (Weds Trump meeting concerns), Apparel Retail getting hit (Warm Weather, 3rd part CC data, and overnight UA headers) – while those Yield Proxies act well. Sea of green in Europe, with the DAX up 60bp led by Fins, but eyes on Italy ripping higher led by a 1.5% pop in banks on Unicredit Capital Raise plans. London is lagging, up only 50bp as the Miners come under sharp pressure overnight. Over in Asia, Shanghai got back small from the Monday smackdown – Aussie lost 30bp on falling miners — but Y115 holding had Nikkei outperforming the region and our Hawaii traders noting “the BoJ appeared to support shares in the afternoon session.” EM Asia closed mostly stronger on very light turnover.
US 10YY retreating from 17-Month High, but holding 2.45% in the overnight. Fed Funds at 100% for tomorrow, and US 2YYs at 6Y highs. All about the “Dot Plot” projections for 2017. Eyes were on Tokyo, where JGB’s hit 10bp overnight — the theoretical BOJ cap — before retreating. In Europe, a Stronger ZEW couldn’t stop the bid in Bunds, while Italy debt is squeezing higher on the UniCredit headers. The DXY is now green despite a stronger Sterling (UK Inflation 2Y highs), as both Yen and Euro falter early. Ore was weaker in China amid a rash of Economic Data — but Copper holds a slight bid as Gold breaks lower. Eyes on Oil, climbing 1% as IEA forecasts the market in balance in 2H 2017 buoying prices. Natty gas gaining small despite the smackdown yesterday.
Ahead of us today, we get Import Price Index at 8:30 — The Bank of England Bond-Buying Operation Results at 9:50. At 1pm the US Treasury auctions $12 Bln 30-Year Bonds Reopening. At 2pm the FOMC “Drift” Kicks in. At 4:30 tonight we get the API data for Crude. U.S. Crude Stockpiles Seen Falling 1.5M Bbl in Bloomberg Survey – Gasoline stockpiles +2m to 231.5m. “Cushing Crude Stocks Rose 3.2M Bbl Last Week: Bloomberg” (Genscape said +1.1M for Cushing.)