Via Dave Lutz, head of ETFs at JonesTrading, here’s a super-quick guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Good Morning, and welcome to the last day of the month. US Futures are starting today basically flat, with all eyes on the ADP employment report at 8:15ET. Over in Europe, it’s a mixed bag, with EU Equities retreating from 2week highs, despite a rip higher in the Fins on DB comments. The DAX is down 10bp as every sector away from Financials is in the red. London is down 20bp, with Miners weaker as Ore drops a 6th day. Volumes are pretty solid tho, as Month-End rebalances drive volumes up 40-50% from recent trends. In Asia, Nikkei leapt 1% as the Yen drops on weaker Industrial Production data, China rose 30bp, Aussie lost 80bp as the materials and energy sector as iron ore prices fell, while Macau off (2.5%) ahead of Aug GGR tomorrow. Regional turnover improved on the back of today’s MSCI rebalance.
The DXY is climbing for the 4th straight day, despite slightly dovish comments overnight from Rosengren. Euro is breaking down as EU Inflation posts light — While the Yen continues to get hit as BOJ’s Funo was uber bullish on negative rates. Global Sov yields are higher as U.S. Treasuries are set for their biggest monthly loss since June 2015 — while Spanish yields are leaking wider ahead of a Confidence Vote later today. Metals are mixed despite Ore falling for a 6th day, losing 1.6% – dropping nearly 10% over the last 6 sessions. Silver and Copper showing a slight bounce, while Gold dives red on the $. Oil on 2week lows into Inventory data later as Gasoline drops another 1.5%, while Natty bucks the trend by adding small.
Busy day of Catalysts today, with Fed’s Kashkari speaking at 8am, right when Brazil GDP hits. At 8:15 we get the ADP Employment report, followed at 8:30 by U.S. Treasury Sec Lew speaking. 9:45 brings the Chicago Purchasing Manager (9:43 for paying subs), with the Bank of England Bond-Buying Operation Results hitting at 9:50. At 10am we get Pending Home Sales for July and the Online Help Wanted Index — then 10:30 brings the DOE report — Last night’s API showed Crude Inventory +942K Barrels, Street at 1.5mm, while Cushing fell 600k (Genscape looked for a draw of -290k). Gasoline Stockpiles fell 1.6mm (Street at -1.25m). At 2:30 Gasoline and Brent Contracts roll, and we get Agricultural Prices. After the close, REITs split from financials into new GICs sector.
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