From Dave Lutz, head of ETFs at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about:
Good Morning! US Futures are starting this week into Labour Day Holidays very quiet. The S&P is up small, while smallcaps are lagging slightly. Dead quiet over in Europe as London Closed for Holiday — Most exchanges that are open are seeing turnover 40-50% light to normal trends. It is a sea of red across the continent as Europeans react top Jackson Hole Commentary — with the DAX off 70bp as every major sector falls. Losses are being led by the Discretionary and Energy companies, while Banks are giving back 70bp of last week’s gains. In Asia, the Nikkei leapt 2.2% as the Yen fell, causing exporters like the autos to rip higher — Our office in Kauai noted “Chatter the GPIF will need to increase equity holdings to maintain 25% target weight helped sentiment” — China closed basically unch, while Aussie fell 1% to a 1month low as earnings season winds down.
Downbeat chatter from Jackson Hole on Negative interest rates has Yields globally popping slightly higher. JGB Yields added 1bp, while Bunds 10YY is climbing 3bp, and nearing 0% again. Hawkish commentary has Fed-fund futures showing a 42% chance this AM of a hike in September, nearing the highest expectations of 2016. The DXY remains on peaks, continuing to make gains against Euro and Yen, while commod currencies are dropping this AM. The Stronger $ weighs on Gold and Silver, while Copper is up 40bp, shrugging off Ore getting slammed for 4% in China. The Oil complex remains under pressure, with WTI off 1.3% and struggling to hold $47 early as Gasoline continues to drop. Natty Gas is losing 1.4% after the surge last week.
Quiet day of catalysts ahead of us, with US PCE, along with Personal Income and Spending at 8:30. At 10:30 we get Dallas Fed Manf. Activity. The Farm Progress Show in Des Moines, Iowa is kicking off, so a large focus there from the Agriculture players. This week we get heavy economic data from Asia (Specifically China and Japan) — we have Multiple FOMC Speakers, but no Janet — The REITs split from financials into new GICs sector post-mkt Weds, while Vehicle Sales Data for August released on Thursday.
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