Via Dave Lutz, head of ETFs at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about ahead of the jobs report:
Good Morning, and Happy Jobs Friday (Street at 180,000 jobs but whisper headed higher, AlmanacTrader notes S&P 500 down 12 of last 15 on this print) — US Futures are starting on a upbeat note, climbing 25bp as Earnings (KHC, PCLN) and M&A (RAX) provide tailwinds. All green in Europe despite Insurers weaker on Allianz #s, with the DAX climbing 20bp on the back of their Consumer Discretionary sector, while mining and energy companies led gains across the continent. In London, the FTSE 100 on a fresh 2016 high despite Royal Bank of Scotland Group whacked on #s, as the materials sector jumps 2%+. Italy up 1% as their Banks rebound another 2% – but volumes across the continent are abysmal, with most exchanges trading 30-40% light. Quiet overnight in Asia, Hong Kong leapt 1.4% – Nikkei and Shanghai’s composite were Flat, while Aussie added 40bp led by resource stocks.
Treasury Yields are a touch weaker as Sovs catch a bid globally – 10YY on JGBs lost 2bp despite a weak auction overnight – Italian 10-Year Yield Falls to 17-Month Low — and Bunds are basically flat. The DXY is losing some ground as the pound is recovering, Aussie$ 3week peaks on heavy covering, and Euro breaks higher despite headers that German factories orders collapsed. With the weaker $, Gold acting well, hovering near y’days highs — but it’s really Aluminium and zinc leading metals higher as Ore rips to a 17month high overnight in Daliain. Oil is breaking lower as we await the rig count later today, losing ½ of yesterday’s rally so far – While Natty is breaking down 1.5% as yesterday’s inventory draw was well expected by the market. Softs are bid across the board.
Ahead of us today, the “Main Event” is at 8:30 with the release of Nonfarm Payrolls data, along with the US Trade Balance. Quiet until the afternoon, when the Baker Hughes Rig Count is released at 1 — then we get US Consumer Credit data at 3pm, just before that CFTC “Commitment of Traders” data hits at 3:30. At some point Moody’s will be reviewing its rating on Turkey today — with a possible cut to Junk. Tonight the 2016 Olympic Games Opening Ceremony takes place down in Rio.