Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about before markets open on the final day of a wild trading week.
Good Morning, and Happy Friday! US Futures are giving some back early, with the S&P off 1% after recording a 6.5% 2day surge, as the Jackson Hole symposium kicks off. European markets are weaker, with the DAX off 1% with major sector in the red — led by a 1% drop in Consumer Discretionary shares. FTSE is outperforming tho, as British Confidence came in the highest in 15years into their 3day weekend in London. Unfortunately for us traders, Equity volumes are in collapse today, with then DAX trading 50% of its week average. Over in Asia — the Shanghai climbs 5% on the “expectation of further easing measures from government and regulatory agencies (China’s Pension fund is doubling investing 2x anticipated)” – Only 11 stocks fell as 944 rose – Unlike on Thursday, however, the gain was led by small-cap stocks rather than state-backed blue-chips. Japan rose 3% on Friday following a number of positive economic readings — and every major index in Asia rose except Hong Kong — which finished down 1%.
The US 10YY is sharply lower, and testing yesterday’s lows — as a strong bid has developed for Bunds and treasuries early. That said, the Hawks smell in control as the “Policy Sensitive” 2YY is in the green and near 2015 peaks — while the Fed Funds are up again, now showing a 30% chance of lift in a few weeks. The Greenback is higher as it is making gains against Yen early, but those commodity currencies are all having a decent day — and the Euro is seeing a bit of short-covering as EU Money supply leaps. The higher $US is a headwind for commodities, but there is little give-back from yesterday’s gains — Metals are mostly bid, led by a 50bp pop in Gold — whgile focus remains on the Energy Complex. Brent and WTI are off small, losing 40bp despite Oil’s biggest jump in 6+years yesterday. Softs are all higher, while Natty is gaining 1%+ – so the short-cover in XOP/OIH may continue today.
We get Personal Income and Spending at 8:30, followed by the Aug Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10. The Baker Hughes data is due at 1 – Rig Count now risen 5 straight weeks, and 7 of the last 8. “Commitment of Trader” data kicks off at 3:30. In Washington, President Obama will speak to Jewish groups on Iran agreement – Defence Sec. Carter travels to Silicon Valley to announce economic initiative — while the Senate, House remain on summer break.
The Kansas City Fed hosts annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming today — and we have a slew of Central Bank players talking the next 30 hours —> Bullard at 7:30, Mester and Kocherlakota at 9:15 – SNB President Jordan Participates in Panel at Jackson Hole at 12:25 — Fed’s Lockhart at 2:15. Overnight and tomorrow we get BOE’s Carney – ECB Vice President Constancio — and Fed Vice Chair Fischer Remarks on U.S. Inflation Developments tomorrow at 12:25
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