Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about as stock futures bounce back on Wednesday morning.
Good Morning! US Futures are attempting to recover from yesterday’s late swandive, brought on by massive MOC sell tickets. S&P and Nasdaq are 2% higher despite some weakness in European markets, and more Chinese selling pressure overnight. The DAX is off 70bp and EM Equities heavy on FTSE, hitting London for 1% – but volume has dropped off sharply today despite EU Stoxx’s VIX is 35.3, near a four-year high. Financials and Tech are having a tough go in Europe, but Industrials are attempting to outperform. Over in Asia, Shanghai dropped 1.3% after rising as much as 4.3% and falling 3.9%, extending its steepest five-day rout since 1996. Asian EM losses were tempered by gains in Taiwan and South Korea, while Nikkei popped 3% on dovish tailwinds into Kuroda speech tonight. Aussie was able to post small gains overnight as materials names managed a small rally.
Fed Funds is showing a 26% chance of a September launch, but that “Policy Sensitive” 2YY is jumping 5bp higher as the street positions hawkishly again – The US 10YY is back upside of 2.1% early — but the Euro is breaking towards yesterday’s lows and Bunds are well bid as dovish ECB comments reverberate. Watch DXY 94.70 — Yesterday’s highs — a break north will be a big headwind for commodities — and we are starting with copper, aluminium and other metals just off multiyear lows, and Gold continues to retreat quickly from last week’s bid. Even with the higher $US, it’s stunning that WTI is basically unchanged after that massive 7.3MM draw reported by API last night ahead of DOE today. Softs are mixed, but Natty has a bid despite fear-mongering over record inventories in overnight press.
At 8:30 — we get the US Durable Goods Orders, ahead of a production forecast for summer grains at 9:30. Fed’s Dudley Answers Questions At Press Briefing at 10am, and we get that DOE data for Crude, Gasoline and Distillates at 10:30. Treasury gets active at 1pm, as we get an auction of $US13B 2-Year Floating Rate Notes and $US35 Bln in 5-Year Notes. BOJ’s Kuroda Speaks in NYC About Japan’s Inflation Target at 7pm tonight. In Washington today, the Senate, House remain on summer break — and the only published meeting on President Obama’s schedule is to host last year’s WNBA champion Phoenix Mercury at 12:15.
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