Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s what traders are talking about right now.
Good morning! US Futures are starting on a bullish note, with the DJIA trying to break a 7day losing streak and the SPX bouncing over 200dma again early. This mirrors strength overseas, with the STOXX up 60bp and DAX up 40bp – Telcos, Steels and Airlines all up strongly, but offset by sharp weakness in energy and mining companies. Miners killed the FTSE, which coupled by weakness in Banks have London down 70bp early. The Greek market is up 1.2% as headlines suggest a deal finalised this week. Over in Asia, Shanghai leapt almost 5% as the government directed industrial restructurings, Nikkei lost small as Japan consumer sentiment hits a 6-month low while Aussie bounced 60bp on the back of their Banks rebounding, but Mining stocks struggling following weak China data. Volumes light in Asia as summer Holidays reign
The US 10YY us climbing 2bp, trying to rebound from near 3M lows, while that “Policy Sensitive” 2YY is adding 2bp and rests just off 4Y highs as Fed Funds suggest a 56% chance of a liftoff in September. The Greenback is in rally mode against Euro, Yen and Commodity FX like A$, Loonie and Kiwi. While China’s exports drop sharply, we are seeing a nice bid for the Metals, with Zinc, Copper, Nickel and Platinum all higher — but Gold remains weak, drifting around unchanged. The Oil complex is up very small, bucking China headlines, a Stronger $US, headlines of US exports, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count increasing yet again. ‘Softs” are having a nice day into WASDE this week, with Corn, Soy and Wheat all bid higher.
Fed’s Fischer is speaking right now on Bloomie TV, ahead of a double whammy from Fed’s Lockhart (9 and 12:25). Split between his appearances is the Labour Market Conditions Index Change at 10 and U.S. auctioning $US24B 3M bills, $US24b 6M bills at 11:30. Quiet in DC today, with Senate, House on August recess and President Obama on vacation in Martha’s Vineyard. At 1:30 Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton unveils her college affordability plan. Looking ahead, aside from Earnings, we do have a fair amount of catalysts this week including Fed’s Dudley – ECB and BOJ Minutes and US Advance Retail Sales for July – Germany’s ZEW Survey along with Eurozone GDP and CPI and the World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE).