Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about before the market open:
Good Morning! Futures Levels (and Minis) include Friday’s NFP selloff — so right now the S&P is down 65bp from Friday’s Close and under the 100dma. We have Holidays everywhere today — UK and Europe are closed, so no reaction to Greece saying making IMF payment this week. Saudi is up 50bp, so no angst or major reaction from the Iranian Deal Headlines. Many Asia-Pacific Markets are closed for holidays – Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan and Thailand. Japan was open, and lost small in abysmal volumes as Sharp leapt on chatter spinning off LCD Biz while Toshiba lost 8% on accounting probe.
The US 10YY is basically flat from Friday’s close — where it lost 12bp on the NFP miss (Only 126k added, forecast for 245k) — causing Fed Fund Futures to push out the timing for US rate hikes (JPM pushed to Sept from June this AM). The DXY is losing ground — as Euro leapt back towards 1.10 (Since retreated) and $US/Yen struggles to stay upside 119. We do have a sharp bid in the commodity complex, led by a 3% pop in the Oil complex — Saudi Aramco raises Asia crude prices and rebounding from Thursday’s Iran induced smackdown. Interesting Copper is jumping 2% and Silver 2.5% — so a “growth” trade is going on. The softs are mixed, but Wheat continues to get upward momentum, adding 1.5%. Scheduled Catalysts include Fed’s Dudley Speaking on Economic Outlook in New Jersey at 8:30; Markit US Composite PMI at 9:45 ahead of our official reading at 10 – BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey at 10:30
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