Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about:
Good Morning! Last trading day of the month — TGIF! Ton of cross-currents from Macro early, with the Yen at 18-month high (Nikkei futures off 3%+ from yesterday’s close — Holiday today), but commodities are hopping pretty good. US Futures are off small tho, despite AMZN blowing it out and some M&A Rolling (ROVI for TIVO; CUZ & PKY). Pretty much a big sea of red overseas tho, as the DAX drops 1.3% in decent volume – Airlines weak across Europe as BA parent cuts targets — Fins weak as Contributions to Italy’s bank rescue fund undershoot — while Discretionary gets worked over. The FTSE is outperforming, losing “only” 80bp as the Miners rally across the board. In Asia, Shanghai lost 20bp, Hang Seng 1.5%, while Aussie bucked the trend, adding 50bp as resource stocks rallied. Japan is Closed 4 of the next 6 trading days for “Golden Week.”
We do have some weakness in Treasuries early, following Germany’s 10YY slightly higher. The DXY is at a eight-month low as Euro rallies as Eurozone inflation disappoints, but GDP smashes expectations. The Yen continues its upward move, with $/Y falling to 107 — but some focus on the Chinese yuan fixed more 50bp+ higher against the dollar, its biggest daily increase since the currency was depegged from the greenback in 2005. Metals are all breaking higher, as Ore was Limit up in China, jumping 6%, dragging Copper 2.4% higher, followed by Silver (+2%) and Gold approaching YTD highs. The Oil complex shows no signs of retreat, with WTI adding 1% and getting upside $46.50 despite Gasoline being weaker, while Natty Gas is shrugging off the chill in Annapolis, losing 30bp early. Softs seem to have a bid across the board.
Ahead of us today, we get US Employment Cost Index; PCE Deflator at 8:30, followed by that Chicago Purchasing Manager at 9:45 (Released 9:43 for paying subscribers). U. of Mich. Sentiment hits at 10, then focus shifts to the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1, followed by expiry of the spot Brent contract at 2:30. At 3 we get Agricultural Prices, with the CFTC “Commitment of Traders” data at 3:30. Down in Washington, House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady delivers remarks on tax policy, corporate inversions and Medicare reform at 9:30.