Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about before the market open.
Good morning, US futures are off 30bp, recovering well from another weak overnight session. We have No Greek nor Iranian deals, and headlines seem to be worsening — The DAX is off small with discretionary and materials in the red and Airline stocks continued to weaken — while the Fins and Tech are seeing bids — Volume is pacing anywhere from 25-30% light overseas – FT Notes “Trading is cautious with volumes thinner than usual because dealers may be reluctant to make bold bets ahead of the Easter holidays. Many Asian, European and American bourses are closed for Good Friday, with a sizeable selection also taking Monday off, too.” Over in Asia, the Nikkei jumped 1.5% (Huge bid in yield plays and Autos) – Stimulus hopes push Shanghai up another 40bp to 7+Y highs, and Aussie pops despite miners being weak (Ore under $US50) as weak inflation data has 70% of investors betting on a rate cut next week down under.
Dovish tailwinds continue to support the Treasury market — weak US data persists (ADP miss and ISM manufacturing 22m low) — and headlines “Atlanta Fed cuts US Q1 GDP growth forecast to zero” this AM has the 10YY taking out March Lows this AM. The DXY is weaker, with Euro bid over 1.08 the primary driver. Watch Sterling — Pile of election angst evident yesterday, and keep an eye on that Aussie$ breaking south into next week’s announcement. With the $US weaker, we have a tailwind for commodities — but the “Growth” trade is coming off sharply — Silver and Copper off ~1%, and even Gold Weaker despite the falling $US. The Oil complex is giving back a chunk of yesterday’s gains — with Brent and WTI losing over 2.5%. Scheduled Catalysts include Challenger Job Cuts and ECB minutes at 7:30 — Fed’s Yellen speaks at 8am — at 8:30 we get weekly Jobless claims — 9:45 brings us ISM New York ahead of Factory orders at 10 – Natty gas Inventory data is released at 10:30, and Next week’s auction sizes (3,10,30Ys) will be announced at 11.