From Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super quick guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Good Morning, and Happy Marathon Monday! It’s Patriots day, so liquidity from New England may be tempered today. Right now Global Futures have been breaking due south, as No deal in Doha after Saudi insisted Iran be part of any agreement. WTI initially fell 7%, but has recovered more than half of those losses — S&P starts today off 30bp. Over in Europe, the DAX has rallied back near unchanged, with Energy companies hardest hit in Europe, offset as Financials rally back towards unch and Discretionary rallies – Tour operators and airlines are among the biggest gainers as Oil falls. London is off 25bp as more “brexit” fears weigh on the Banks there. Volumes are pacing light tho, with most markets 25% below normal turnover. In Asia, Shanghai lost 1.4% – Insurers struggled in China/HK as China Life fell 2% after co announced weak March Rev – Aussie lost 40bp on Energy, but in Japan, the Nikkei was hit for 3.4% as supply chain disruptions have surfaced due to the heavy quake activity last week.
There was a sharp bid early for Bunds and Treasuries, as JGB’s closed at -12bp, just off record lows. Euro is starting this ECB week on a positive note, but Commodity currencies are getting whacked — SA Rand, Aussie and Canadian $ and Rubles all under pressure. Gold is not seeing much “haven” buying, but has a bid as the DXY falls. All focus is on the Oil complex, where WTI is off 3.6%, rallying back from a 7% whack as Focus shifts to the Strike in Kuwait which has reduced their output by 1.6mbpd. Metals are mixed, as Ore rallies 3.6% in China, but Copper is falling 70bp early. Softs are seeing gains across the complex.
Ahead of us today we get 2 of the FOMC’s biggest doves speaking – Fed’s Dudley (Voter, Dove) Gives Opening Remarks at Economics Conference at 8:30 — We get the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10 — and watch for Fin weakness into the afternoon, when Fed’s Kashkari (neutral, non-voter) Speaks in Minneapolis at12:30. Tonight after the close, Treasury Sec Lew chairs Financial Stability Oversight Council at 5pm, while Fed’s Rosengren (Voter, Dove) to Speak at Central Conn. State University at 7pm tonight. It’s relatively quiet down in Washington as Congress returns from break. Tonight we get #s from IBM and NFLX, as we get ready for 100+ S&P500 companies to report this week.