Good Morning, and Happy April Fools! Global stocks are starting the second quarter on the back foot, as Saudi comments smack Oil and Japan is crushed on their Tankan survey. US Futures are off 45bp early, but well outperforming weakness across Europe. The DAX is getting worked for 2%, with every sector firmly in the Red. Insurers weak in Europe as Zurich goes Ex-Divvy while the big banks remain under pressure and Industrials lead to downside. Over in London, FTSE is off 1.3% as Energy and Materials shares drop; that said Miners continue to outperform. Volumes are decent, with most exchanges across the continent trading heavier than normal. Over in Asia, Chinese shares shrugged off early losses to close flat as their PMI surprises to upside, but Hang Seng whacked on S&P downgrade. Eyes were on Japan losing 3.5% as Yen breaks higher and manufacturer confidence collapses. Aussie was worked for 1.6% as the big banks continued their free fall, led by ANZ falling 5% for the week.
All eyes on NFP today – Street at 205k, but a big skew — Many top forecasters are over 200k tho, while many feel seasonality and adjustments could cause a big miss — From 2008, the March payroll # has missed by an average of 53,000 — the worst of any month. The US 10YY is up small, but that $ remains under pressure with the DXY at a 5month low. Euro continues to attract upside flows despite weaker data as the common currency hits 15month peaks against Sterling. Despite the weaker $, Gold is seeing profit-taking, while many of the industrial metals are only showing a small bounce post China PMI data. All eyes are on the Oil Complex, with WTI falling 2% on headlines from Saudi throwing the production freeze in doubt.
Ahead of us today, we get Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 – Markit US Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 just ahead of ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending and U. of Mich. Sentiment at 10. 1pm brings the Baker Hughes Rig Count and a speech by Fed’s Mester. 3:30 we get that CFTC “Commitment of Traders” data. Throughout the session, we get Monthly Car Sales Data. In US Politics, at 11:45 Hillary Clinton holds roundtable discussion in Syracuse where she is expected to unveil $10B in manufacturing investments.