From Dave Lutz, head of ETFs at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Good Morning, and TGIF! Global Shares hover around 2 week lows as we await headers from Jackson Hole (Yellen 10amET). The Spoos are off very small, following some weakness over in Europe and Asia. The DAX is down 30bp in seasonally thin markets — where most exchanges are trading 30-40% light to trend. Across the continent, healthcare and retail weaker — while Vivendi weighs in Media stocks. In London, a recovery in Rio and Glencore has the FTSE outperforming, gaining 10bp ahead of their 3day weekend. In Asia, the Nikkei fell 1.2% as $/Y100 was eyeballed on weak inflation data – Aussie lost 50bp on weaker earnings reports, while Shanghai closed the week losing small. EM Asia closed mixed to lower.
We continue to see some Hawkish positioning into the Yellen Speech titled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit”. Odds of a September Hike have gone from 0% Post Brexit, to 33% this AM as it feels the Fed wants the market to view September closer to a “Coin Flip” — The DXY is mixed, torn between climbing commodity currencies, while Euros and Yen gain upward mojo. Very slight recovery in Gold and Silver, but Copper continues to lag as Ore dropped a 3rd day in a row, losing 2.5% in China — but Zinc continues to rip on Chinese mine supply concerns. The Oil Complex is under some more pressure, losing 40bp early as we await the Rig Count later today, While Natty is retreating another 1% as peeps sell the inventory data from yesterday.
Ahead of us today, we get Advance Goods Trade Balance and 2Q GDP at 8:30 – U. of Mich. Sentiment hits at 10am, right when Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to Speak at Jackson Hole Policy Symposium (Speech released at same time) — At 1pm we get the Baker Hughes Rig Count, followed at 3:30 by the CFTC “Commitment of Traders” data.