Dave Lutz, head of exchange-traded funds at JonesTrading, keeps a great pulse on what traders are talking about around the clock.
And on Thursday, ahead of the big April jobs report set for release on Friday morning, Lutz spent all day talking about everything … EXCEPT the jobs report.
In an afternoon email, Lutz sent a recap of what he was talking about in chat rooms on Thursday, and almost everything except the jobs report was covered.
Traders started the day talking about oil, continued talking about the currency markets and the huge reversal in German Bund yields. The afternoon was spent talking about the decline in Treasury yields and a couple of big hedge fund names: Yelp and Shake Shack.
As for what Wall Street economists expect from the jobs report, here’s the overview from Bloomberg:
- Nonfarm payroll growth: +230,000
- Unemployment rate: 5.4%
- Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.2%
- Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +2.3%
- Average weekly hours worked: 34.5
In a note to clients ahead of the report, Goldman Sachs’ David Mericle outlined 3 reasons why the report may top expectations and 3 reasons why it might be a big miss. Mericle expects payrolls to grow by 230,000 in April.
Joe LaVorgna at Deutsche Bank thinks the report will show a bounce back from the underwhelming job gains of 126,000 seen in March, and expects job growth of 225,000 in April.