Credit Suisse: THIS Is the Real List Of Countries Verging On A Sovereign Crisis (And, Yes, The US Is On It)

Romania

Photo: AP

We recently looked at CDS spreads to determine which sovereigns investors are the most concerned about.But that’s a crude, highly-inexact approach considering the illiquid and generally esoteric nature of the sovereign CDS market.

Credit Suisse has come up with its own list of the riskiest countries using such measures as credit rating, CDS spreads, potential for GDP growth, government debt, private sector credit, and the budget balance.

Those factors are all compiled into a single score and then ranked.

And unlike with the previous list, the US is on it.

See the countries on the verge of a crisis >

Indonesia: Overall Risk Score 26.5

CDS Spread: 198

Credit Rating: BB+

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Kazakhstan: Overall Risk Score 26.6

CDS Spread: 210

Credit Rating: BBB

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Poland: Overall Risk Score 26.7

CDS Spread: 135

Credit Rating: A

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Estonia: Overall Risk Score 28.4

CDS Spread: 140

Credit Rating: A-

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

USA: Overall Risk Score 29.5

CDS Spread: 30

Credit Rating: AAA

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Italy: Overall Risk Score 29.9

CDS Spread: 104

Credit Rating: A+

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

India: Overall Risk Score 30.0

CDS Spread: NA

Credit Rating: BBB-

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Egypt: Overall Risk Score 30.7

CDS Spread: 270

Credit Rating: BBB-

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Bulgaria: Overall Risk Score 32.1

CDS Spread: 239

Credit Rating: BBB

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Turkey: Overall Risk Score 32.3

CDS Spread: 191

Credit Rating: BB

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Lithuania: Overall Risk Score 33.3

CDS Spread: 273

Credit Rating: BBB

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Romania: Overall Risk Score 33.5

CDS Spread: 249

Credit Rating: BBB-

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Ukraine: Overall Risk Score 34.0

CDS Spread: 875

Credit Rating: B-

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Ireland: Overall Risk Score 35.4

CDS Spread: 129

Credit Rating: AA

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Latvia: Overall Risk Score 36.0

CDS Spread: 475

Credit Rating: BB

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Spain: Overall Risk Score 36.4

CDS Spread: 122

Credit Rating: AA+

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Portugal: Overall Risk Score 36.7

CDS Spread: 184

Credit Rating: A+

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Hungary: Overall Risk Score 38.1

CDS Spread: 249

Credit Rating: BBB-

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Greece: Overall Risk Score 42.3

CDS Spread: 389

Credit Rating: BBB+

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Iceland: Overall Risk Score 46.0

CDS Spread: 638

Credit Rating: BBB+

Source: Credit Suisse Table via FT Alphaville

Now check out who gets burned if Greece defaults

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