The ominous month of September arriveth. Tomorrow.
For those into market arcana, here are the relevant statistics.
Usually down. From 1950 – 2007, the S&P 500 and Dow fell an average of -0.5% and -0.9%. From 1971 – 2007 the Nasdaq fell an average of -0.7%. Last year the S&P was down almost 9%, the Dow slightly, and the Nasdaq over 11%.
Especially in a post-election year. Post-election years have been worse. The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq have fallen -1.2%, -1.1%, and -1.6% on average.
The first day has been more frequently positive. The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq have been up 67%, 57%, and 62% of the time on the first trading day of the month.
Historically, the end of September has had a strong finish. The 18th, 19th, and 20th trading days have been up more often than not.
“September is when leaves and stocks tend to fall. On Wall Street it’s the worst month of all.”
There you have it.
(Sourced via Wiley’s Stock Trader’s Almanac 2009)