Some of the more bearish stock market watchers have been warning that US stocks have never risen for more than six consecutive years.
Most recently, DoubleLine Funds’ Jeffrey Gundlach said in his 2015 outlook that the stock market would make history if it closes up this year for a seventh consecutive time.
But that’s only true if the measure of a year in the market is from one New Year’s Eve to the next, according to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.
“Rather, looking at the daily history of the Dow (since 1897), we have plotted the consecutive years an investor would realise gains,” Lee wrote in a note to clients Friday. “As shown, there are 5 different periods when consecutive annual gains surged 7 years or more (1,280 specific days).”
Looking at the chart below, each ‘stair climb’ represents one year of gains. The blue line has crossed the 6-year threshold seven times.
The S&P 500 is actually on the verge of rising for the 7th consecutive time, and this is nothing new.
Lee also wrote that after 6 consecutive years of gains, the chances that stocks rise for a 7th consecutive year is 70%.
“There are 1,831 instances of 6 consecutive years of gains and of those, 1,280 became a 7th consecutive year. Therefore, the chances of a 7th consecutive year are 70% (1,280 divided by 1,831).”