Traders and investors around the world are still trying to make sense of Thursday’s 335-point plunge in the Dow. It the bull market over? Are we in the midst of a 10% correction? Is this the beginning of the crash?
Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee characterises the recent weakness as “troubling.” However, he’s still optimistic that things will turn around.
“Equity markets globally weakened further this week with the S&P 500 down another 2% (bringing the decline from the 9/19 intraday peak of 2019 to 4.5%),” Lee wrote in a new 21-page note to clients. “While the list of ‘worries’ continues to mount (Euro-growth, QE ending, commodities, dollar surge, small-cap underperformance, etc.), the primary issue for investors appears to be global growth concerns (Euro-area/sanctions and implied US weakness due to small- caps and retail sales).”
He identifies four reasons why things in the world are actually looking up:
1: “Dollar strength has raised US growth concerns (primarily due to exporters), but past surges are surprisingly associated with equity gains 64% of the time.”
2: “3Q14 Earnings season is actually off to a good start, with 68% of companies beating on EPS (74% of Cyclicals).”
3: “US consumers will get as much as a $US10 billion boost from the 3% decline in gasoline spend in the coming quarters.”
4: “Valuations improved considerably (14.9x forward PE) and case for a beta chase still intact.”
Lee believes the latest selling is a blip in a bull market that could run for several years. While not his official call, he noted that the S&P 500 could hit 2,700 before the bull market ended.
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