TNS Media Intelligence broke out its full-year ad forecast and the news is grim. Spending is expected to grow a slim 4.2% over 2007, meaning that without the Olympics and a presidential election, overall spending would probably be flat in 2008. The last time both a Summer Olympics and a presidential election hit in the same year, in 2004, spending grew 9.8%.
- Internet advertising (up 14.4%) will overtake radio (up 0.07%) in market share for the first time. (This doesn’t include paid search, which TNS does not measure, and which would obviously goose numbers much, much higher.)
- Television (44.1%) and magazines (21.1%) retain their share of the ad pie, but just barely. (Without the Olympics and the election, TV would be down.)
- Newspapers, radio and outdoor advertising all lose share.
- The first half will start weak (up 3.6%), but the 2008 elections should help push the second 6 months will be up 4.7%.
- Political spending will add $3 billion to the pie this year, and Olympics advertising will add $2 billion.
- Local TV gets the lion’s share of political, and will be up 9.9% while network TV languishes at 2.7%.
- Almost all Olympics spending will pour into the coffers of NBC U, helping the fourth-place network in a year it is challenged by both ratings and the writers strike.
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