HedgeFundLIVE.com — I feel vindicated. The markets behaviour is exactly what I have been blogging about for 2 weeks. But what now? Last night I went home long stocks short futures dollar neutral. Today will be a cathartic day.
Then the shorts will cover, Middle East issues will stabilise over weekend, oil will start to drop lower as this morning’s gap is short covering from trader who shorted against the 100 level yesterday. Gaddafi will be dead inside of a week. I am still concerned about Bahrain.
But as my plan was to see the market test 1300 a couple of times, I expect the bull market to resume by Monday. Keep in mind that In 3 days we have given back the entire month of February and then some. This gives me 2 signals, time to cover shorts, and find the beaten up names that have less impact from the overseas issues. Worst case I see 1287 as a massive support level.
I am buying TGT, IMAX, homebuilders and beaten up tech, including AAPL and NFLX. I look for a serious reversal off these lows either today or tomorrow. As Saudi Arabia floods the population with money and Bahrain offers the same thing, I am reminded of our own government’s strategy for fixing problems.
Clearly the economic numbers coming out this morning will help stabilise the market. Apple launches Ipad 2 next week. The federal government will figure out how to extend the budget deficit, as Obama has now shown his hand. He will move to the centre when left with no alternative. He has to if he wants to be reelected.So lets review.
- Today will be the highs in oil for some time.
- While I am worried about Bahrain, I have yet to see something that would force me to change my trading strategy
- Qaddafi will be dead soon
- All of Februarys gains have been wiped out
- Individual stock are down as much as 10%
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