This Simple Chart Shows Why Sarkozy Is Doomed

There’s an election coming up in France, and given President Sarkozy’s leading role in helping save the Eurozone, it matters to the entire world.

The opposition candidate Fran├žois Hollande is leading in the polls, and apparently even Angela Merkel is being brought in to save Sarkozy. Really, she’s going to campaign with him on the trail during the election.

But it’s probably too late.

This chart from BNP Paribas looking at household confience vs. elections says it all. When household confidence is low, the party in power switches. When it’s up near the 0-line the party in power holds.


Photo: BNP Paribas

At the current level of household confidence, an incumbent really has no chance.

As for the timing of the election, you should find this calendar handy.


Photo: BNP Paribas

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