The voter reaction to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership coup has just emerged in the first major poll since last week’s spill and the results will have the 54 MPs who voted to change Liberal leader cheering and send terror through Labor ranks.
The Roy Morgan Poll has comprehensively reversed the Coalition’s fortunes, from trailing Labor the two party preferred vote by 52% to 48%, with a 12-point turnaround to deliver a massive 10-point lead, 55% to 45%.
The challenge for Turnbull now is to act in a fashion that makes it last until next year’s election, but already in the minds of voters, he’s hit the ground running and unlike Labor’s disastrous leadership coups, the Australian public appears happy with what happened to the Liberal party last week.
While younger people still favoured the ALP, voters over 35 have swung firmly behind the Coalition at between 58% (35-49yo) and 64% (65+) on a two party preferred basis.
The shift has also added 11 points to the Coalition’s primary vote at the expense of both Labor and the Greens, suggesting Turnbull has appeal across the political spectrum that his predecessor Tony Abbott lacked.
Liberal-National Party’s (L-NP) primary vote is up 11 to 46%, with the ALP dropping -7 to 29.5%, and the Green vote -3 to 13%.
Primary support for the L-NP is now at its highest since the 2013 federal election, with the ALP vote at its lowest level since July 2012, five months after the ALP installed Julia Gillard as leader.
The weekend poll of 2,059 Australian voters also saw the government confidence rating up 17 points, with 42.5% (up 7.5%) of Australians saying the nation was “heading in the right direction” and 39.5% (down 9.5%) saying Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”.
Pollster Gary Morgan said it was the first time the confidence rating was in positive territory since April 2014, just prior to Joe Hockey’s confidence-sapping first budget.
“Tomorrow’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating will give the first indication of how Turnbull’s ascent to the top job has impacted on Australian consumers,” he said
After 30 consecutive negative polls – a fact Turnbull pointed to in launching his challenge – which led government MPs to say they never pay any attention to polls, don’t be surprised to hearing them crowing about the result tomorrow.
The stunning turnaround in support for the Coalition can be seen here.
And here’s the shift in confidence in the government.
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