It’s now officially election day in the US.
Millions of Americans have already cast their votes in early polling but we will start to get some results mid-morning tomorrow, Australian eastern time.
My reading is there are two likely scenarios tomorrow. One is a convincing Clinton win, in which case we should know around lunchtime in Australia.
The other likely scenario is a close-run contest where Trump secures some key swing states and looks competitive in others, in which case it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll know the result.
Below is the latest RealClearPolitics electoral college map, showing the states to keep a close eye on during the count.
Florida, Pennsylvania (where Clinton held her election-eve rally with the Obamas and Bruce Springsteen), Ohio and Michigan are pivotal in the early counting. If Clinton leads convincingly in Florida and one other of those states then she gets to around 250+ electoral college votes, within striking distance of the 270 needed to win.
Michigan is also one to watch. The Clinton campaign appeared to be in a full-blown panic over the state in the final days of the campaign, staging rallies and pouring resources into the state which hasn’t voted Republican in 20 years in a presidential ballot. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 77% chance of winning Michigan.
One other state to watch is New Hampshire. It has only four electoral college votes but will be fascinating as it has been in the eye of the late Trump surge. Look:
This matters because if polling methods have failed to capture the true extent of Trump support (as happened in the Brexit referendum polls in the UK with the Leave campaign) then you’d expect to see it showing up in New Hampshire.
Business Insider Australia will have full live coverage and analysis from our news and politics teams in the US throughout the day.
You can play around with the electoral college map at RealClearPolitics here.
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