This Live Political Calculator Just Upped The Chance Of A Labor Election Win -- To 18% combines data from a range of betting markets to determine the probability of certain political outcome.

Here’s it’s chart of the chance of a Labor victory in the September election with today’s spike coming in the past few hours as it emerged that Kevin Rudd could regain the Labor leadership.

The betting markets still have it as a long shot though – the rise is from 12.5% this morning to 18%.

We’re covering the latest developments here.

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