This Is Where Hiring Is Coming From

Jon Lansner at the O.C. Register wrote about looking at year-over-year changes: 

Forget the debate about the true oomph of February’s 227,000 job gain from January.

Look at this same data on a year-over-year basis! What do you learn?

American bosses added 2.021 million jobs in the year ended in February. That’s a 1.5 per cent job growth pace. It’s the fastest bout of hiring since January 2007.

That requires a graph! Instead of just looking at the year-over-year increase in total nonfarm payrolls, I divided the data into changes in private and public payrolls. 

yoy change in private and public payrolls

Photo: Calculated Risk

The red line is the year-over-year changes for private payrolls; the blue line is for public payrolls.

Whereas total payrolls are up 1.5 per cent, private payrolls are up 2.0% year-over-year, the fastestrate of increase since early 2006. 

However public payrolls are down 1.0%, and public payrolls have been falling since mid-2009 with the exception of the decennial Census hiring (note the spike every 10 years in public hiring).

Note: It looks likely that the decline in public payrolls will end mid-year 2012 (the year-over-year change will hit zero some time later).

This post originally appeared on Calculated Risk.

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