This Friday we get the February Non-Farm Payrolls report.The NFP report is always a big deal, but the hype surrounding this one seems substantially louder than most.
Here are a few thoughts as to why:
- Last month’s number was very big, and that instantly created a lot of hype for this one to see if there would be follow-through.
- The consensus number is over 200K, but there are some real big numbers being predicted. SocGen leads the heap with an estimate of 275K.
- The strong February auto sales number would indicate a big upcoming number.
- The ongoing decline in initial claims also augurs for a big number.
- The big stock market run means there’s very little margin for error, and people are wondering if a correction is inevitable.
- While there’s a general view that the economy is gaining momentum, some of the data has just been mediocre lately.
- Because it’s the second Friday of the month, it’s been a longer wait than usual.
The fun for jobs week starts Wednesday when we get the ADP report.