We know job vacancies are falling and unemployment is expected to rise to 6 per cent this year.
And we know that any job losses won’t be spread evenly across Australia. So which areas will be hit the hardest?
The Employment Vulnerability Index (EVI), created by Charles Darwin University, Griffith University and the University of Newcastle, is an indicator that identifies suburbs which have higher proportions of the types of jobs thought to be at risk in the current economic climate.
The current index report authors say: “Australian Treasury estimates put the unemployment rate at around 6.25 per cent sometime in 2014, resulting in a possible 800,000 people being out of work. We believe that the Treasury estimate is overly optimistic.”
The index placed 14 per cent (223) of the 1,561 areas analysed on a red alert for potential job losses.
Another 41.6 per cent were identified as amber alert (medium to high job loss potential) localities.
The emerging disadvantage job loss localities include: Bossley Park, Abbotsbury and Condell Park in Sydney; Cranbourne and Hallam in Melbourne; Morayfield East, Regents Park, Heritage Park in Brisbane; Aldinga and Munno Para West, Angle Vale in Adelaide; Byford and Pinjarra in Perth; and Brighton, Pontville in Hobart.
A research report for the index says:
“People in particular industry sectors; those with low skills and those employed in casual or part-time positions will likely see their employment opportunities diminish. Past experience has suggested that industry sectors including construction, manufacturing, mining, retail, accommodation, finance and real estate will be most at risk of suffering significant job losses during a slowdown.”
Check out your city’s risk suburbs with this searchable map.