Economic analyst and forecaster BIS Shrapnel says it has uncovered the secret weapon behind New South Wales’ thrilling series win, the first in nine years.
It’s the recovery in the state’s economy.
On the eve of the third State of Origin match of 2014, BIS Shrapnel points out an uncanny correlation between civil construction activity in each state and the outcome of each State of Origin series since 1996.
In the 10 series played between 1996 and 2005, a period when New South Wales engineering construction activity eclipsed that of Queensland – during the resources investment boom – the Maroons only won two series, two were drawn and six were won by the Blues.
However, this changed sharply from 2006, when an infrastructure and resources investment boom in the Sunshine State coincided with an eight-year uninterrupted reign of success for the Maroons.
The state most likely to win is one which is experiencing a period of high construction activity.
“It is a stark correlation, and one that we have been noting persistently to our Queensland and New South Wales clients over the past few years,” says Senior Manager of BIS Shrapnel’s Infrastructure and Mining Unit, Adrian Hart.
If the theory holds true, then the 2014 series win for New South Wales could auger a new cycle of Blues domination.
“The construction momentum has definitely shifted in favour of New South Wales,” says Hart.
“Driven by new transport infrastructure projects across roads and railways, and with the prospect of airport development at Badgerys Creek, New South Wales civil construction activity is set to exceed that of Queensland by a substantial margin – suggesting more Blues series victories ahead.”
“By contrast, Queensland’s prospects have weakened as the mining investment boom subsides. Both on and off the field, the past eight years has been an incredibly impressive feat – probably a once in a lifetime experience. Can Queensland’s ageing champions turn it around and buck the cycle? We will have to wait and see.”
BIS Shrapnel forecasts a strong period of construction for NSW:
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