10 Countries That Will Survive The Sovereign Credit Meltdown Of 2010

oktoberfest, germany, ap 122109

First, there were the failed banks.

Then, countries started to fold

2009 has been the year of shrinking budgets, and economic slowdown for many nations.

In 2010, sovereign defaults are expected to be the economic story.

While many of these survivors have their own troubles, their problems are so far from the dire situations in Dubai, Greece and the UK, that they’re great safe havens for investors.

We have our picks for the world’s safest sovereigns, based on a report of CMA DataVision.

See the governments that will survive the sovereign credit meltdown >

10. Switzerland

Cumulative Probability of Default: 3.9%

5-Year Credit Default Swap Level: 45.7 (bps)

Previous Ranking: New Entry

Bloomberg: Switzerland suffered the shallowest recession among the Group of 10 industrialized nations, as measured by Bloomberg data. Its performance lagged behind only Australia, the sole G- 10 member to avoid recession. The Swiss economy is forecast to shrink less than half as much as the euro region this year, 1.9 per cent compared with 4 per cent, the organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said Nov. 19, aided by an expanding current-account surplus -- the broadest measure of trade.

Image: Lindt

Source: CMA Datavision

9. Belgium

Cumulative Probability of Default: 3.8%

5-Year Credit Default Swap Level: 45.3 (bps)

Previous Ranking: 9 (No Change)

Reuters: Belgium's economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2009, in line with a flash estimate released in October, the country's central bank said. On a year-on-year basis, the Belgian economy expanded by 3.4 per cent, against the initial forecast of 3.5 per cent, the central bank said.

Image: International Waffle Day

Source: CMA Datavision

8. Australia

7. U.S.A.

6. Denmark

Cumulative Probability of Default: 2.6%

5-Year Credit Default Swap Level: 30.5 (bps)

Previous Ranking: 8 (Up 2)

RTTNews: The Statistics Denmark announced that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus stood at DKK 3.6 billion in October, down from DKK 6 billion surplus in the previous month.

Exports dropped 16% year-on-year to DKK 40.5 billion in October, while imports fell 21% to DKK 36.9 billion.

Source: CMA Datavision

5. Netherlands

Cumulative Probability of Default: 2.5%

5-Year Credit Default Swap Level: 29.5 (bps)

Previous Ranking: 6 (Up 1)

RTTNews: Netherlands' current account surplus stood at EUR 6.98 billion in the third quarter, down from EUR 7.49 billion surplus in the previous quarter, the central bank said on Monday. In the first quarter, the current account surplus was EUR 7.69 billion.

Source: CMA Datavision

4. France

Cumulative Probability of Default: 2.2%

5-Year Credit Default Swap Level: 26 (bps)

Previous Ranking: 5 (Up 1)

AP: The French economy will emerge slowly from recession in 2010, with weak growth forecast for both the first and second quarters, France's national statistics agency said Thursday. In its quarterly economic outlook, the Insee national statistics bureau forecast that gross domestic product would grow 0.4 per cent in the first quarter and 0.3 per cent in the second quarter.

Source: CMA Datavision

2. Germany

1. Norway

Cumulative Probability of Default: 1.4%

5-Year Credit Default Swap Level: 15.6 (bps)

Previous Ranking: 1 (No Change)

RTTNews: The Statistics Norway announced that the trade surplus stood at NOK 29.8 billion in November, down from NOK 38.29 billion surplus recorded a year ago.

Exports decreased 15.3% year-on-year to NOK 65.39 billion in November, while imports dropped 8.4% to NOK 35.63 billion.

Image: fjordtravel.no

Source: CMA Datavision

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