Photo: USS Hanson
The first week of every month is always a busy one for economic data. You have Global PMI day (which is at the start of every month) and you get key data like construction spending, non-farm payrolls, and auto sales.This month is no exception, and in fact it should be even more intense than normal because there will be so much interest in the fiscal cliff negotiations (even if markets are not quite sure that they matter much yet).
For the globe as a whole, things really start Sunday night, when we get our first PMI readings from Asia.
You can find the full schedule here, but the basic gist is that South Korean PMI (the infamous canary in the coalmine) comes out at 7:01 PM ET Sunday night, while China comes out at 8:45 PM. Other countries will report throughout the night and then we get the European numbers around 3 AM Monday morning, giving us a key look at how the European situation is shaping up.
Now let’s talk about the US data-week.
Here’s the schedule for Monday:
- 10:00 AM: ISM (Exp: 51.2)
- 10:00 AM: Construction Spending (Exp: +0.4%)
- 2 PM: Auto Sales
- Weekly chain store sales. Will be a critical look at how holiday shopping is shaping up. Last week wasn’t so hot.
- 8:15 AM: ADP employment (Exp: 125K)
- 10:00 AM: Factory Orders (EXP: -0.1%)
- 10:00 AM: ISM Non-Manufacturing: (Exp: 53.7)
- 8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims. This number has been elevated lately, and that’s being blamed on Sandy. Will be critical to see how fast this is coming down.
- The big one. The Jobs Report comes out at 8:30 AM ET. Analysts expect just 90K new jobs and for the unemployment rate to jump up to 8.0%.
- 9:55 AM: Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Exp: 82.4)
- 2:00 PM: Consumer Credit ($9.9 billion)
Also coming up this week is a big ECB meeting on Thursday. The Federal Reserve has a two-day meeting the following week.
Bottom line: Debt ceiling, global manufacturing, and US data. It’s going to be a big one.