The big votes on financial reform come this week.
There’s Blanche Lincoln’s controversial (and accidental) anti-derivatives rule, and there’s the Volcker Rule, also known as the Merkley-Levin amendment.
According to FT’s query of banking industry sources (via HedgeAnalyst), derivatives will probably fail. Volcker, on the other hand, will probably pass.
That’s big, but… there’s still the question of who and what the rule will apply to. Our sense is that a lot of folks who it might be aimed at don’t think they’re in violation of the “no prop trading at banks” rule.