The first results are in, and they will not be great news for everyone. Simply put, it is not a good time to be an American.
Last week we launched our crowdsourcing economic indicators experiment, the world’s first real-time Consumer Confidence Index from your friendly local global economists at EconomyWatch.com.
As the data fills out, we start to get a sense of what people around the world are feeling.
So far we have learnt that Kazakhstani’s are feeling really good about life, although admittedly we have only heard from two of you so far. So come on, residents of Astana and the rest of that vast and beautiful country – are you all feeling great about the Kazakhstan Economy too?
Check out the real-time Consumer Confidence Index on EconomyWatch
We have also learnt that Italians are the most pessimistic about the future, all 3 of you feeling decidedly down, followed closely by 10 Brits.
We have more statistically significant responses from three countries. 34 Indians and 30 Singaporeans have confirmed that those countries are optimistic, pushing Asia/Pacific to the top of the continental rankings.
However we have been most closely tracking responses from what is still the world’s largest and most important economy, the United States.
What we have seen is a steady decline in confidence Stateside, that is literally pulling the whole world down.
48 Americans have given the US a rating of 562 (out of 1,000), broadly meaning that they expect the economy to stay the same. This is down from a confident 756 Mid May, although we should point out the Mid May figures were not statistically significant and so are probably skewed.
In fact, responses in the last week have been on average below 500, meaning that most people in the US now believe things will get worse.
Respondents are particularly worried about Employment Conditions and Household Income, although they feel slightly better about Business Conditions and the overall Economy.
These figures, however, have been dropping across the board.
Judge for yourself: US Consumer Confidence Index
Even though there is a sense of opportunity then, it doesn’t seem to be flowing to the middle classes in the form of wages and jobs, or so the perception goes. Is there any truth to this?
The Daily Mail provided confirmation of this bleak picture.
There were 54,000 jobs created in May, but that was only one quarter of the approx 200k jobs that were created monthly in the preceding three months, and well short of what ‘Economists’ had been predicting: overall payrolls to rise 150,000 and private hiring to increase 175,000.
Economists said the report did not suggest the economy was heading into recession, but they said job growth could prove frustratingly slow.
Got it? We’re all right Jack – Wall Street that is – but you can forget about jobs.
Well what do you expect if you put a tax-dodging crookmeister like GE’s Jeffrey Immelt in charge of jobs creation. Not only did these shmucks pay ZERO tax on $5.1 billion US revenues, they actually claimed a tax benefit of $3.2 billion.
Related: GE’s $14.2 Billion Legal Tax Avoidance Further Sign of US Decay
Instead of making an example of this kind of modern day reverse Robin Hood, the White House put him in charge of the President’s Council on Jobs and Effectiveness.
So don’t expect any policies designed to actually boost employment any time soon, although more policies on effectiveness (ie even less corporate tax and even more benefits) are surely in the making.
The Daily Mail went on to say that
With downwardly-revised figures for employment in the previous two months, today’s report confirmed the sharp slowdown in economic growth since the beginning of 2011, despite government efforts to power up a job-creating recovery.
They never said what the government efforts to power up a job-creating recovery were, beyond the Robber Barons being put in charge of creating jobs.
‘Overall, this is horrible,’ said Ian Shepherd son, U.S. economist for High Frequency economics. He then went on to say it was likely a short-term dip – which we suspect means, once again, short-term for Wall St and not the unemployed.
To add insult to injury, it turns out that over 20,000 of the jobs created were at McDonald’s. More than half of new jobs are McJobs.
In fact, it gets worse.
Consumers believe the chances of bringing home more money one year from now are at their lowest in 25 years, according to analysis of survey data by Goldman Sachs.
Goldman’s made this extraordinary statement after studying the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters poll, which asks consumers whether they believe their family income will rise more than inflation in the next 12 months [note: the EconomyWatch.com poll asks about views for the next 6 months.]
Wage pessimism is at its lowest in more than two decades as real hourly wages have dropped 2.1 per cent on an annualized basis over the past six months, a rate of decline not seen in 20 years.
This is extraordinary. Wages are dropping more than they did in the Great Financial Crisis. Confidence is less than it was in the Great Financial Crisis.
A typical recovery pattern goes like this: stock market bottoms, economic growth bottoms and then hiring and wage increases return. What’s unique and scary about this recovery is that the last piece of the recovery is not there.
But if you really want to see how the system is focused on Wall St and corporates, while eating its young, look at housing.
Read the FULL STORY: Not a Good Time to Be an American
Or check out the real-time Consumer Confidence Index
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