There’s one last run in US stocks left.
Shares could get a huge boost as investors worry about missing gains, according to Michael Hartnett, the chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
According to a note from Hartnett entitled “The Final Melt Up”, the shift of investors from defensive stocks (think industrials and telecoms) to more cyclical companies (retail, tech, and consumer goods) shows that investors’ appetite for risk is growing.
This will create demand for stocks and drive the market upwards.
“Likelihood of melt up in risk assets into Jackson Hole growing… likely followed by jump in yields,” he wrote.
The chart below illustrates the rotation that Hartnett is noticing:
Essentially, a melt-up by definition is a sudden leap in the market caused by investors rushing in because they fear missing out. It’s not a sign of improved fundamentals.
In other words, these companies and markets may not have higher earnings or be stronger investment opportunities.
Hartnett doesn’t into the details of the end of the melt up, but with the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen set to speak at the Jackson Hole conference at the end of the month, that appears to be the catalyst that will stop the stampede.