Photo: Atlas von Loon via Wikimedia
Bill McBride at Calculated Risk has an excellent two-sentence summary of the state of the economy:My view is the economy is not currently in a recession, and that economic growth will pickup in 2013, although there are downside risks from Europe and the potential for a policy mistake in the US (no agreement on the fiscal bluff). As I’ve noted before, I see two key reason for a pickup in the US: 1) I expect residential investment to increase next year (the key leading indicator for the economy), 2) I think the drag from state and local governments will subside.
This is really it.
In the past we spotlighted two main reasons to think the economy would be more robust next year.
And then there is the headwind, a possible fiscal mistake.
There’s this other meme going around that whereas before, the US was the “cleanest dirty shirt” in the global economy, now it’s the country that’s farthest behind policy-wise. China is stimulating. Europe has the ECB bond buying program, and the US, well… everyone’s just waiting for it to get its act together again.
Business Insider Emails & Alerts
Site highlights each day to your inbox.