Wednesday marks the four-week anniversary of the most recent stock market bottom, made on October 15.
Since then, the S&P 500 has gained 12% in just 19 trading session and moved back to all-time highs.
Tuesday’s close marked the 40th time this year that the S&P 500 made an all-time closing high.
In an email Wednesday morning, Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners, noted that the September-November 2012 stock pullback, which was similar in magnitude (about 9%) to the most recent decline, rebounded 12% over 49 trading days.
So, it’s been a remarkable bounce for stocks in the last month.
Additionally, the S&P 500 has closed above its 5-day moving average for 18 straight sessions as of Tuesday’s close. This indicates that over the last few weeks, upward momentum in the stock market has been incredibly strong.
But Krinsky also highlighted some other facts about the speed and intensity with which the market has bounced back in the last month:
- The S&P 500 closed above its 5 day moving average for the 18th consecutive day on Tuesday, and since 1996, there have been just seven streaks of at least this length.
- Three of these streaks have occurred in the last 18 months.
- Three times, returns over the next six weeks have been positive; four times return have been negative.
- The longest streak of trading days above the 5-day moving average is 23: hit once in December 1996 and again in July 1998.
Krinsky adds that given the intensity of the recent rally, “we are hard pressed to find this level an attractive entry point for new long positions.”
“Some sideways consolidation would be healthy here, with a modest retracement back to the 1978-1980 level a reasonable target. Should that occur in the next couple weeks, that would re-set a lot of charts and set-up for a potential year-end rally.”
In early trade on Wednesday, stock were lower across the board.
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