The Real Story In This Morning's ISM Report? The Inflationary Environment Is Here

Waverley Advisors takes a look at this morning’s very strong ISM manufacturing report.

Critically, ISM Prices continued to rise in April, reaching an index level of 78.  This
is no surprise this far into the Fed’s extended zero rate campaign but, with real rates
in negative territory for so long, the clear implication is that producer inflationary
pressure is finally on the horizon. With consumer inflation still tame enough to leave
the Fed with free reign to delay tightening into the third or fourth quarter, pressure
in the production sector could drive price strength in portions of the commodity
complex –particularly if demand from developing economies remains strong. 


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