THE RAJ VERDICT: Our Complete List Of Predictions

Raj Rajaratnam

Raj might get convicted today.

The jury has been deliberating on the 14 counts against Raj for

If they come to 14 unanimous decisions about the counts against the alleged insider trader within those hours, he will be convicted.

Our prediction:

  1. Galleon conspiracy – not guilty (Adam Smith’s testimony was good, but there are 8 “overt acts” that the prosecution had to prove: trading in the stock of ICS, XILINX, Clearwire, Vishay, Spansion, Goldman Sachs, Atheros, and Marvel. Their case on ICS –the “eyes” email– and Goldman –the Rajat Gupta calls– is awesome. But on Clearwire, a WSJ article came out about the deal and Raj’s brother, Rengan, told Raj, “we’re fucked.” And on Spansion, his source was Kumar and the government didn’t include Spansion in their Kumar conspiracy charge. On Vishay, its evidence is pretty circumstantial too. Read more here.)
  2. Khan conspiracy – not guilty (the government is requiring the jury to rely on a lot of 3rd party accounts. The best part of their argument is that Khan’s tip about Google’s disastrous quarter were at least a factor in Raj’s decision, and she told Raj, “thank you,” proof she benefited. But Raj sent his colleague an email that says it “hit his price target” and that’s why he dumped and then shorted Google. On Polycom, there is no account of Khan tipping Raj. There is only Khan IMing him, “hi u there?”, and Raj later saying to a colleague, “buy 60 plcm,” and Raj later telling Khan, “thanks for plcm idea.” And on Hilton, there was a news article, a UBS analyst report, and a Fly on the Wall article about it.)
  3. Goel conspiracy – guilty (Raj gave Goel money, Goel gave Raj specific tips about Intel ie the equity splits, and the quarterly earnings.)
  4. Kumar conspiracy – not guilty (because Kumar was the least credible witness and because he admitted to not entering into an agreement to insider trade with Raj, saying, “I would never have done that.”)
  5. Chiesi conspiracy – guilty (there are tons of phone calls corroborating the charge, and Raj told her to keep the info “radio silent”)
  6. Clearwire on March 24 2008- guilty (there are news articles and analyst reports with info similar to that relayed on the wiretap of Goel telling Raj he would find out more about Intel’s investment in Clearwire, but Raj has specific details about the deal)
  7. Clearwire on March 25 2008 – same as above
  8. Akami on July 25 2008 – not guilty (there’s a wiretap of Raj tipping Chiesi, but no wiretap of Raj getting the tip from Goel. Also, there is public chatter about the deal.)
  9. Akami on July 29 2008 – same as above
  10. Akami on July 30 2008 – same as above
  11. People Support – guilty (the charge is that Raj gave Goel a tip. There were two news articles with similar information, but Raj knew exact numbers.)
  12. People Support – guilty (Galleon had an employee on the board. Raj traded People Support in Goel’s account.)
  13. Told Galleon to buy ATI – not guilty (It’s relying on Kumar’s testimony. Also, there were many rumours about the deal.)
  14. Told Galleon to buy Intel – guilty (Goel told Raj to buy Intel. He knew specifics ahead of time.)

Now click here to see the 9 things no body is talking about at the Raj trial >