Four years ago, Mitt Romney spent lots of time and money in Iowa and lost by nine points to Mike Huckabee. Today he’s still at the exact same place in the polls he occupied four years ago.
Romney is clearly ahead in the “long game” of the nomination. He is polling way ahead in New Hampshire. He has the money and organisation to win the nomination.
Unless he dramatically underperforms in Iowa tonight like he did four years ago.
If Romney only finishes in the mid-teens – suddenly the game opens wide. The media will scream that “MITT ROMNEY CAN’T CLOSE THE DEAL” Jon Huntsman suddenly will look viable in New Hampshire. Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry will make a move in South Carolina.
If Mitt Romney finishes at or very close to the top, then he enters cruise control as Santorum and Paul scramble to try and close the huge gap in New Hampshire.
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