Photo: Pete Souza via Wikimedia
An NH Journal/Magellan poll shows Newt Gingrich making an incredible surge to tie the formally invincible Mitt Romney. As of this writing, Drudge Report is leading the results.
Here are the results:
If the election were held today, Romney would earn 29% of the vote and Gingrich would earn 27%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul continues to show resolve by earning 16%. Herman Cain gets 10%. No other candidate is in double digits.
But there is no reason to believe in this poll.
The Wall Street Journal points out that it is a huge statistical anomaly.
The New Hampshire Journal’s survey stands in sharp contrast to a Bloomberg News poll earlier this week that found Mr. Romney with an uncontested lead – 40%, compared with 17% for Mr. Paul and 11% for Mr. Gingrich.
If the Magellan poll is right, then Romney supposedly lost half his support in just a week without making a single gaffe, without any new embarrassing revelation from his past, or devastating attack ad doing the damage. Just… poof! Gone.
This isn’t credible.
The National Journal’s Steve Shepherd has been pointing out the rookie sampline errors in the new poll today. This outlier poll over-sampled voters over 65 years old, and under-sampled young voters in the 18-34 range. It was also a robo-call phone that didn’t reach people with cell phones.
In other words this is a useless poll beyond generating over-cooked headlines. And since no one actually believes this poll – no one is going to write that Newt’s support drops by double-digits next week when a new well-conducted poll comes out.
There is no doubt whatsoever that Gingrich is surging in support. But he hasn’t tied Romney in New Hampshire.
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