The new Star Wars movie could bring in a lot of money.
In fact, about $US2.2 billion, according to some analysts.
“As expectations begin to ramp/get framed for ‘Star Wars’ we look at how to benchmark the film compared to ‘Avatar’ and some of the other recent global blockbusters,” Stifel analysts Benjamin Mogil and Kevin Lee Hon Siong wrote in a note to clients. “In aggregate, we believe that the film can gross around $US2.2bn globally.”
As a reference point, that means that “The Force Awakens” could literally eclipse the GDP of 22 countries.
Mogil and Siong suggest that there are two major tailwinds for this movie. First, the number of IMAX screens has nearly doubled, and the number of 3D screens has nearly quadrupled since 2009. And second, international markets like China, Russia, and Latin America have seen “significant” screen and box office growth.
However, there is one wildcard factor: the movie’s release date in China.
“There is a strong inverse correlation in Chinese box office performance from the release date duration between the global data and the Chinese data, owing to piracy,” Mogil and Siong wrote.
In any case, we’ll have to wait until “The Force Awakens” opens on December 18 to see how many people rush to see it worldwide.
The film is being produced by Lucasfilm, a subsidiary of Disney.
Mogil and Siong have a buy-rating on Disney with a $US130 price target.