I was just messing around on FRED today, and I decided to pull up the S&P 500. I ran across an astonishing fact that I couldn’t even believe. And I don’t mean “I couldn’t believe” in a narcissistic way. I’ve been someone who has been banging on the table about the bullishnessand resilience of the market for the last year. That the US markets have been one of the strongest, despite slowing global growth.
So what I did to the S&P 500 is as follows.
I changed the time-frame to a weekly chart, narrowed it down to the last 5 years, and made the scale to show the Year-Over-Year (YoY) change. What I saw was pretty amazing. Since the first week of October 2010, the market has only had 7 weekly negative YoY readings. That’s out of a 156 weeks, meaning 95.2% of the time had you had bought (the market) a year ago, you would’ve been sitting positive. And those 7 times? The largest negative reading was only -1.6% (in early October 2011). This doesn’t even include total returns (dividends!).
While this is obviously a “side-effect” of a massive 4 year bull-market (this is not the first time this has happened), it is still amazing this has held true given what has happened since the bottom of the stock market in 2009 (Flash Crash, Europe double dip/riots, BRICs slowing down, debt ceiling fiasco, oil spikes, +8% unemployment, etc). Just goes to show you how resilient and strong the market really is.
So here’s the chart.
Photo: The ArmoTrader
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