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The market is tanking (NASDAQ down 1.4%) the day after a Pew poll showing Mitt Romney had taken the lead in the race.So does the prefer Obama?
We have no idea, but it is interesting that despite the common conventional wisdom that a Romney victory would be better for the market, there’s zero evidence of this actually taking place in practice.
This morning we wrote in a post, citing BTIG’s Dan Greenhaus, that the Romney-is-bullish argument has two basic legs: One was that Romney would be more likely to avert the fiscal cliff. The other is that Romney would likely hold capital gains and dividend taxes lower.
Those assumptions really might be warranted, and Romney might in fact be better for stocks, but… it is interesting that there’s virtually no evidence of this happening now.
Note that it is possible that the market might actually prefer Obama (keeping Bernanke, keeping higher deficits etc.) but for now, the basic assumption of many investors just does not seem to be playing out in any discernible way.