QE3 is not coming at the next meeting, and it’s not clear at all if/when it will be here
That’s according to the WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath, who is always really plugged in on these things.
Fed officials meeting next week are unlikely to take any new actions to spur the recovery, and they are likely to emerge with a slightly more upbeat—but still very guarded—assessment of the economy’s performance. This comes after a series of moves in recent months, including recasting its securities portfolio in January as a way to spur growth. Then the central bank signaled in January that short-term interest rates are likely to stay near zero through most of 2014.
Meanwhile, Citi’s FX guy Steven Englander expects serious volatility in the wake of the announcement, as investors read into every word.
If the Fed kept January’s language it is likely that the USD would sell off. Given the recent comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke and other FOMC members, FX investors probably expect more positive language on the recent tone of the economy, but uncertainty about how it will evolve from here. They probably expect future policy doors to be open although probably not as wide open as it seemed in January. Our US economists point out that “most of the pickup in employment has been in sectors likely to benefit from the mild weather” and that the Fed Chairman seemed genuinely uncertain how to balance the mixed strains in incoming data. If the FOMC uses language that continues ” to highlight downside risks consistent with policy’s accommodative thrust” (our economists’ interpretation of Bernanke’s comments), the outcome could be USD negative and asset market positive. .