Société Générale economist Brian Jones has the
most optimistic forecastfor the September jobs report on Wall Street.
Jones doesn’t stop at a prediction for how many payrolls were created in September, though. He also predicts exactly how markets will move immediately following the release.
“The SG forecast is above consensus and a positive intraday impact for risky assets is expected if the SG forecast materialises,” writes Jones. “We expect [the S&P 500] to move up by 0.4% and the [10-year] USD swap rate to move up by 3 [basis points] in the first half hour after the release.”
Jones says there is a statistical relationship between the deviation of the actual nonfarm payroll print from the consensus forecast and the market’s reaction.
“The relationship between asset changes around the release and the spread NFP versus consensus is measured by a regression (OLS),” says Jones.
Business Insider Emails & Alerts
Site highlights each day to your inbox.