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This was a strange jobs report, with unclear implications for both the economy and the election.First of all, the total non-farm payrolls gained was just 96K.
That’s well below expectations of 130K.
But the unemployment rate fell to 8.1%.
That’s a big drop from 8.3%. That’s because the number of people in the workforce fell.
But again, the headline is the headline.
What’s also not good… is that last month’s numbers were revised lower from 163K to 141K.
Overall, disappoointing economically, but marginally OK politically.
The weak report is causing Goldman to predict QE announced by the Fed next week.
And as this chart shows, the labour force participation rate is now at its lowest level since 1981.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 96,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 8.1 per cent, the U.S. Bureau of labour Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places, in professional and technical services, and in health care.
Household Survey Data The unemployment rate edged down in August to 8.1 per cent. Since the beginning of this year, the rate has held in a narrow range of 8.1 to 8.3 per cent. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.5 million, was little changed in August. (See table A-1.) Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.6 per cent), adult women (7.3 per cent), teenagers (24.6 per cent), whites (7.2 per cent), blacks (14.1 per cent), and Hispanics (10.2 per cent) showed little or no change in August. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.9 per cent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) In August, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 5.0 million. These individuals accounted for 40.0 per cent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.) Both the civilian labour force (154.6 million) and the labour force participation rate (63.5 per cent) declined in August. The employment-population ratio, at 58.3 per cent, was little changed. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed at 8.0 million in August. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.) In August, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labour force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labour force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.) —-
Here it is folks!
We’re just a few minutes away from The Most Politically Important Jobs Report Of All Time.
Here are the numbers that analysts are expecting:
- Total Non-Farm Payrolls: +130K
- Change in private payrolls: +142K
- The unemployment rate 8.3% (flat from the previous month).
- Change in manufacturing jobs: +10K
These numbers were worse until yesterday, when ADP blew the doors off with its 201K number.
The BI house prediction is 120K.
And the average Twitter user is 150K.
We’ll have the number right here LIVE at 8:30 AM ET.