Just 36K new jobs were created. That’s well below expectations. The private sector only added 50K.
BUT! The employment rate fell to 9.0% which is remarkable. That compares to 9.4%.
Markets are still higher after the news. The market isn’t buying the news.
There were some revisions two the last couple months that were positive:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was
revised from +71,000 to +93,000, and the change for December was
revised from +103,000 to +121,000. Monthly revisions result from
additional sample reports and the monthly recalculation of seasonal
factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to these
FWIW, the market clearly smells a big rat and doesn’t believe it was that bad. In fact, the dollar is actually up.
The full report is here.
Background: No need for a grand exposition. Analysts are looking for around 146K, and a bit les than that on the private sector number.
Here are a few of Morgan Stanley’s estimates, which are a touch more bearish than the street.
- Total jobs: 125K
- Private jobs: 125K
- Construction: -25K
- Manufacturing: +15K
- Government: -30K
- Average workweek: 34.2 (down from 34.3 in December)
- Average hourly earnings $22.80 (up from $22.78 in December)
Markets are slightly higher ahead of the number