Apple’s stock has a 25% chance of soaring above $325 next year, says Morgan Stanley analyst Katherine Huberty in a report (via Philip Elmer DeWitt.)
How does it happen? With the iPhone.
If iPhone sales are on pace to capture 10-15% of the handset market by 2012, Huberty sees the stock taking off. Putting the phone on more carriers, introducing a cheaper handset, or changing carrier subsidy plans could all drive sales.
Apple’s iPhone sales could be derailed if Google’s Android becomes a hit. If this happens, look for the stock to drop to $150.
Sales could also slow down if fewer people than expected are willing to pay $90 or more a month for mobile bills in addition to $200 for a phone. In this case, the stock goes to $230.
The rest of the Street’s analysts only give Apple’s stock a 5% chance of getting to $325.
image: Philip Elmer DeWitt