Apple’s iPad is the first “Mac for the masses,” and it will sell 21 million units next year, says Apple bull Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray in a note this morning.
His estimate of 21 million iPads for 2011 is up from his previous estimate of 14.5 million. He’s also raising his price target on the stock to $390, up from $371.
Is it possible 21 million is low? After all, Apple sold 1 million per month in the first three months when it was only in the U.S.
The street is calling for between 15 million and 25 million sold next year, says Munster.
Anyway, we’re impressed. Even Lady Gaga has only sold about 15 million albums to date.
Munster calls it a “Mac for the masses,” because it is basically the first affordable Mac computer for people that couldn’t buy Macs in the past.
Here’s the three reasons Gene raised his iPad estimates:
- Increased Supply & Expanded Distribution Channels. For 5 months after the U.S. iPad launch in April demand outstripped supply (recall: the iPad’s international launch was delayed by one month due to limited supply). Heading into CY11 it appears that Apple has increased capacity and is expanding the iPad distribution channel. All 1,000+ U.S. Best Buy stores will carry the iPad by the end of Sept. We also believe the iPad will join the iPod lineup at Target stores before the 2010 holiday season. Ultimately we expect the total iPad points of purchase to exceed that of the Mac by 2011.
- International Rollout & Adoption In Price Sensitive Markets. On 9/17 Apple launched the iPad in China and 5 Latin American countries (20 countries total). Apple is expanding iPad’s availability into more price-sensitive markets. The initial launches (U.S. and Europe) targeted developed PC markets in which the iPad is likely a secondary computing device. However, the iPad is now available in markets where it is more likely that the iPad is used as a primary computing device for those who could not previously afford a Mac. We ran a combined ASP for Macs and iPads in the June quarter and the ASP declined from $1,267 (Macs only) to $1,031 (down 19% for Macs and iPads combined).
- Uptake In Enterprise Sector. Of any product Apple sells we believe the iPad has the potential to garner the largest percentage of its sales from enterprise customers. Apple has recently highlighted several business use cases on its site (sales, medical, hospitality, etc.) and on the June-10 conference call the company indicated that over 50% of the Fortune 500 were deploying or piloting the iPad.
See Also: 9 Super Cool iPad Modifications